That new player thing is not true, you can see that from steamspy, pattern is pretty much the same as every time after patch. Yes, new players affect the game but not this much. Also orks get the least amount of new players if bE metrics are to be trusted, so logically this should also reflect to other factions even more if this was an issue. We were doing great because we had broken mechanics that were impossible to counter even if Orks otherwise were unfinished AF, now that they fixed those broken mechanics and we got a nerf on top of that we're pretty much at the same point powerwise where we were before we got buffed for the first time. I'm not commenting on general skill level of any faction as that cannot be measured and mathematically odds are that the player skill median curve is pretty much the same for all factions. If you feel that you are doing fine and have no problems with Orks you probably are at the skilled end of that curve. If you claim that Orks in general are doing fine balancewise I think you are wrong. I do appreciate that you are staying positive and posting morale booster threads, but also understating the issue that Orks really are least refined and weakest faction does not fix the issues we have.
The fact that many veteran Ork players are spreading a massive scare whilst rerolling CSM is, of course, not helping the issue, and in the long run only leaves the faction emptier and denied of many of its good players, which only confirms the issues in the eyes of those who check the World Map. EDIT: Also, this is basic statistics, with a smaller population, every small change is going to have a more volatile effect on the results. Keep that in mind.
I'm not saying that new players are purchasing the game and making ork characters. I'm saying players from other factions are creating new ork characters, or players who have gone on hiatus and returned. Every single game I have lost over the past few days has always been because a significant portion of the team is behaving in a manner suggestive that they do not understand how the game works. As I have mentioned elsewhere, I can't blame the newbs for being ignorant of how the game works, as there is no proper tutorial. However, it is quite easy to see that we are flooded with such players. In the time slot that I play, there were so few ork players that nearly every name was recognizable from match to match. Now, those familiar names are outnumbered by players not seen before. Orks are not the weakest faction. We are one of the least populous. There is a big difference. The electrified choppa was good because you could chainstun with heavy attack. Guess what? You can do that with choppa blades and chain choppas too. The HP drop is balanced by the reduced headshot damage, and the increased damage from the rear only comes into effect when you're getting gangbanged in melee, which would kill you anyway. All the other things, like weak vehicles, lack of melta, etc, we have dealt with since the beginning, and we adapted. Those are not relevant to why we are seeing massively decreased win-rate. Neither is dbash glitches, as all races experience this.
I'm not sure if I get what you are saying, because I read "Nothing relevant has changed from the last patch" and this is absolutely objectively not true. I find it weird that you are suggesting that cause of the current situation is something that cannot be measured and where subjectively I have seen zero change in behavior of players while same time we got huge measurable changes made to Orks and long history of comparable data from other factions and graphs made from similar situations. I just don't think "I feel" is the right metric to base these conclusions on. I'm sorry but this is "Vaccinating cause autism" level reasoning right here, if you are willing to blame current events on the assumption that right after the patch (where we got measurably and undeniably nerfed and our broken OP mechanics were fixed) many good players just swapped to Chaos I think we literally have zero common ground here. If you think that the most significant thing that changed when patch got released and Orks immediately started to get rekt was the Ork skillbase or playerbase in general, a thing that has never happened before to any other measured faction in any meaningful way according to few years of metrics, while we have a freaking list that says pretty much "reduced", "fixed" or "removed" after every item on the list called patch notes I have nothing to add here. Guess we just need to git gud. Edit: And what's wrong with checking the world map btw? Is it bugged or what? I tought it's pretty good indicator on how every faction is doing right now, why is completely different issue.
Look, I'm not here to pick a fight, I just don't think sugarcoating the obvious issues does any good. Whining and making those nihilistic "I'M ANGRY BOOHOO" threads is not helping either, you are right there. We need to be objective and honest. When the game is great I'll be a good little fanboy but before that I call things as they are.
And yet you make the point that many of our good players have moved onto chaos, thus diluting the skill pool. Of the top players that continue to play orks, they still perform just about as well as they used to. What does that tell you? And no one is saying "I feel". I am saying what I see in match, with specifics. I have also shown, specifically, how little the nerfs affect us. I'm just tired of seeing, time and time again, across all factions, everyone seeking to assign blame elsewhere before looking at what they might be doing wrong. People are not playing to the objectives. When the Orks play to the objectives, they win, plain and simple. You can call up whatever DPS/TTK statistics you want, but those numbers exist in a vacuum, and matter very little in the face of proper teamwork and coordination.
Where do I make that point ? My point was totally the opposite one. See, feel, think, all subjective. Cold emotionless math is how these things are proven. You cant go "1+1+I think Bob went over to chaos". Give me metrics and math and I believe you. These forums can provide most of those for you, if you dont believe me about those metrics then check them out yourself, on top of that I bet that @vulpeslagopus can provide you with tons of data if you re interested enough to ask him. I agree on that point of seeing too much whine and dodging the blame, but remember that you are making a subjective statement and calling metrics and objective data (that can actually measure a lot of thinks one might not assume) "existing in a vacuum". That is not that much better either, most toxic posts on these forums are those "Git Gud" posts to the current weakest faction.
I'm talking about people from my own guild who have swapped to Chaos. Not about my assumption or perception. I'm talking about how DLB could get a daily 15 people+ war party going almost all evening long, and now we struggle to get 5 people outside of very peak hours. What I'm saying is that those performing well I still see performing well, and many I simply don't see anymore. And concerning the World Map, well I'm not saying it's wrong, all I'm saying is that it only gives a rough idea of the factions, and it has many hidden variables that we can't see.
This is true, world map just tells you what is happening, not why it's happening. It's easy to misinterpret either knowingly or by accident and it should not be the number one metric of how good different factions are. It's truly sad that we're missing more and more veterans, I totally agree. I think it's showing all across the board regardless of the faction, might be worse with Orks, I have no idea.
I'm assuming that most factions are losing vets, on account of people growing bored of the game, or drifting away into other games. The main problem as always in terms of statistics is populations. This is me of course assuming Ork is the smallest faction (which it might not be, as it well could be Eldar, I don't have the data). With very noticeable differences in populations like I assume there is between Orks and LSM/CSM for instance, the assessments one can make are very dodgy, on account that the smaller the population, the more impact every player, good or bad, and every game, win or lose, and every vet gone makes in the greater scale of it all in the short term. TL;DR: small populations make for volatile, clumsy statistical data.