Yes, you are absolutely correct, and that is how it works in the TT as well. Flak is 5+, bolters are AP 5, so flak armoured guardsmen get no save against bolters. Also, I am pretty sure the way the armour would work, especially with guardsman, is trying to make it so that the hits deflect, because the sheer kinetic force of a solid hit would, at the very least, knock a regular person out. So, the armour would make it so there are no solid hits, just glancing ones.
Stopped reading at "TT". I'm not exactly a fan of fluff marines uberdeathultramarines either, but unless we see gigantic dice rolling over the battlefield, nah. Also keep in mind that bolt rounds essentially are miniature rockets, so you do not simply have a kinetic impact but they also explode either on your armor or, worse, inside you.
The problem with the discussions going on here is that there are 2 sides and both are correct; on the one side you have the literature for 40k, in which case a guardsman would stand no chance what so ever against a marine, on the other side you have the table top rules (I'm disregarding other computer games as they have been vastly different in combat calculations depending on the computer game). Essentially, in my opinion, 40k is a table top game and everything from other computer games to the lore to the literature and canon stems from the TT. That must be the base for it, the lore and canon was based off of the TT and evolved from there. As for an IG fighting a marine in single combat, he would be swatted like a fly the moment he is hit, there was a point made about equipment and this does come into play. The bad point of that comment was the chain sword (it would only cause a scratch on a Chaos marine's armour), but there are other options in close combat, such as a melta pistol or plasma pistol, both of which would easily single shot kill the marine, hell those pistols would even punch a hole in terminator armour. Getting that shot off is another matter entirely. Guardsmen are easily balanced, they die fast and easily so their equipment would simply be a lot cheaper than other units. Guardsmen for me have never really been about close combat (for that you send in the Ogryns) it's about the punch of the heavy weapons.. How do you stop a marine with a guardsman? You give him a lascannon for ranged combat and a plasma pistol for close combat or you field Catachan jungle fighters and have the entire area booby trapped then arrange a firing squad. Also Krak grenades are always handy against marines.
What a great way to debate. Stop reading when you see something you don't like. Anyways, keep in mind that the bolter rounds wouldn't have a proximity fuse, because that would minimize damage. Any explosive projectile will hit something, then explode. This is because the force of the explosion is more effective the closer it is to something, obviously. And if it is inside something, as you said, it's even worse. However, this means that the explosive goes off after sufficient force is exerted upon it. And because of that, a glancing hit from a bolter round may result in the bolter round not even exploding, due to the fuse not being hit hard enough. If that were true, they would not bother having grenades. They would just shoot the ground. I highly doubt bolter fire explodes with enough force for the concussive blast to damage someone who wasn't even hit. If that were true, each shot would take out 2-5 of almost anything.
Although being a guardsmen wouldn't be feasible just from the technical aspect, I do agree with the latter part of your statement. The moment a guardsmen tries to melee a space marine is the moment that the guard player is doing it wrong.
To be honest if we're going for complete realism, how long does the power supply on a marine's power armour last before the entire suit just shuts down and leaves him standing like a statue?
While true, again see my post about the bolter impact pulping your organs. If it hits cover near you, well you basically die.