I think that you may underestimate chaos...if modeled correctly, CSM's may be a contestant for the bigger faction.Everyone likes the oversized human tanks SM's are, but the evil, twisted version of that is even more attractive...human nature I guess... I also have a feeling (if again, done properly), that Eldar is not that much of an underdog.With the beautiful models and the graceful movement that they are supposed to have, they'll attract many people also... Orcs most problems are solved through F2P. On topic, as long 1 faction is not bigger than the 2 lowest ones combined, everything will work out...you got alliances, you got tyranids (what's the point of having the biggest army, when half of it is fighting NPC's on backwater outposts?)...and an intelligent War council should use the fact that bonuses from captured territory on previous campaigns stack (At least that's the plan ATM, as said in one of the videos), and go for quality and not quantity when capturing territory.
For the sake of the game I hope your outcome happens over mine. I really don't want to see 40000+ per space marine chapter.
Granted,how many of those games had the Tyranid factor? We have already been told that the Nids will go after the biggest faction,if the SM were to outnumber the other factions by that much,im pretty sure they would have the constant attention of the Hive Mind.
Speaking of casuals and mainstream players, who usually make up the bulk of a game like this I think Orks will be fine due to the F2P factor. They will be the faction a lot of mainstream players first get in touch with and start playing together with their friends. It's likely they'll stick around there even if they buy the game due to their initial attachment to the faction and the people in it Chaos are basically Space Marines, but evil. They should have no problem attracting players for much the same reason Space Marines do Eldar I'm not sure on. I think bE will really have to work on the style of the Eldar to make them popular with the average, non 40K lore-knowing player. They are Elves and they are pretty however, which usually attracts a lot of casual players. It's also the only faction in the launch lineup that offers sleek, lithe armor and non ballistic weaponry and female character options etc. So it'll definitely stand out a bit
I kind of hope eldar are underpopulated, as far as lore goes it makes sense. Other than that I can see them giving benefits to lower population factions on a server basis, maybe it will determine cool downs on abilities/vehicles. Maybe XP bonus like Ps2.
basing population on lore will not work. take SMs. By lore standards there can be no more than 4000 with 4 available chapters. So this is one standard which must be ignored.
I think you are exaggerating the amount of SM players out there. Also, you are overestimating the attachment of those playing SM to SMs. I'm pretty sure a lot of people play SM mainly because it's thrown right into their face, and know little about other factions. Others do because of simplicity (mainly on the modelling and painting section), or because their friends told them so. Also, once the game starts, there will be a lot of movement between factions, because of aesthetics, because of gameplay and because of players finding new appeals, or playing with friends. I'm an Eldar player, and I'll probably play Orks because of my friends. Also, thinking that the SM population will be so high to overshadow 2 entire factions is really, really exaggerated. Mostly when we are talking about Orkz and Chaos SM.
Quoting myself (shame!) because it was at the end of a tldr, but seriously. The likelihood of every SM player on the tabletop staying SM in eternal crusade is very, very low. And we'll also be getting a number of players who haven't even had any exposure to warhammer before, and are just playing because it's a massive, brutal, open world shooter with 1000 man fights. You don't have to be an existing fan to buy into that. Plenty of folks will go with whoever they think looks the coolest.
I think he is not exaggerating, in fact i think the SM numbers will be even worse than in the poll at launch, i hope to be wrong and after a few months people start playing other races like you said but i'm not convinced about it.
Dunno if this has been mentioned yet(I just scrolled trough the replies) but in Steven Lumpkin's latest twitch stream( you can watch the vod here: http://www.twitch.tv/silent0siris/b/496889740) he mentioned that they are building the game itself already assuming that the faction spread will be uneven, and that they cant do anything about it, therefore they are well aware of it, and its somewhere along the lines of you wanting to complete your faction's objectives, not exactly wanting to rule the whole map(like in PS2). Which will perhaps even it out, its something like part is fighting npcs like tyrannids and others are completing objectives against other factions. Its somewhere along these lines I think.
