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Toasty's Campaign Report

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by DrDooManiC, May 19, 2017.

  1. Disclaimer: I am not good at this

    Here some Status Reports of how well the LSM Campaign is going

    2:01:37

    [​IMG]

    Status:

    7 Hours earlier, we had 114 of 151 Pixels, aká 75,4%

    Now we are at 118 of 151 Pixels, which is equal to 78,1%

    Gain since last measurement: +2,7%



    Summary:
    As i live here, i can tell you, this was European Prime-time, as where the most people who wanted in EU can play and LSM won 2,7%.

    Now LSM still has 21,9% to climb up to, and 2 days left. Bare in mind, those are weekend-days and as such, those who are really dedicated should have a lot of time on their hands to play and push the bar even further.

    Question remains, will LSM be able to find enough enemys? Queue times are still horrible so i can only imagine how terrible it must be to get a full Guild into a game, which is totally what LSM would need right now, coordinated teamplay, quickly won matches.

    Especially since it is quite easy now for Guild from other factions to join, as the matchmaker craves for everything not LSM to put it against the countless Angels of Death waiting in Queue.

    LSM made 78% in roughly 7 days, means a little more then 11% a day. If this trend goes on, 2 more days (especially weekends) could mean they may succeed in their campaign.

    That is, IF the matchmaker finds enough enemys for them.
    Chances are that everyone and their mother now has 10 wins in their bags and play their main faction again which would be good.
    But other LSM may only now have the time to join the fray, which could clog the Matchmaker up again.

    We will see i guess, i look again tomorow morning and keep you updated
    Maybe

    1:22:56
    [​IMG]

    Measured again, as i just finished my movie.

    Status:
    It has been 2:41 Hours, and went from 118 of 151 Pixel aká 78,1%

    Up to 120 of 151 Pixel, which should be equal to 79,4%

    So the gain in close to 3 Hours was +1,3%

    Summary:
    7 Hours before brought 2.7% while those 3 Hours brought 1,3%
    It seems the growth-rate of the Progress bar is at 0,4% per Hour, but it's damn early to determine that, as i only have 2 points of measurements.

    However, 47h remaining x 0,4% Gain per Hour = 18,8% that would be generated in the remaining Hours.

    What LSM need though is 20,6% generated in the 47 remaining hour, so they will at the end by shy of 0,8%

    That is, of course, if i have done my math right.

    Keep in mind, what follows now is high-time in US , after that we will have to wait for our Russian [And also Austrialian? Lookin at you Thraxus?] Brothers to get into gaming-hours again, so that's downtime that could be bad for the Progress.

    It's not decided yet, and the 0.8% is such a small margin, that anything could still happen, but according to these rather inaccurate measurements, currently it looks like the LSM campaign will fail

    I check again tomorow. Or... after i've awoken :D

    1:16:19
    [​IMG]

    Status:
    Roughly, 7 hours have passed again since the last Status

    We went from 120 of 151 Pixel = 79,4%

    Up to 123 of 151 Pixels = 82%

    And so we gained +2,6%

    Summary:

    I've seem to discover a consistency here. Again 7 Hours brought 2,6%, which can be seen as roughly 0,4 % per hour (Or more accurate, 0,37 in those 7 Hours)

    Space Marine require another 18% to stand victorious, and at the moment they have another 40 hours left.
    40h left x 0,40% = 16% And LSM would be missing 2% at the end of the campaign.

    It may be because the past 7 hours were not high-gaming time for Eternal Crusade, but in the last prediction we were only shy of 0,8% and now we would be missing 2% (Or even a little more)

    Only seen by this rather inaccurate data, it is looking Grim-Dark for the Loyalists, and thus it seems like they will not complete their campaign, unless the growth rate jumps up because of reasons i am too tired to come up with (but could verry well exist, mind you! :D)

    1:12:36

    After doing some matches as Eldar, i thought to myself "How are they doin?" And i said whenever i ask myself that, i post it too.

    [​IMG]

    Status:
    4 Hours ago we had 123 of 151 Pixel = 82%

    We have 125 out of 151 Pixel = 82,7%

    As i rounded the last result terribly, we had a gain of +0.7%
    in 4 hours

    Summary:
    If it's halway correct what i measured, the gain per Hour shrinked from 0,4% down to 0,175%

    Is this the proof that the Matchmaker is broken? There are more people playing, but less Progress flows into the LSM Campaign Bar. One could think more people means more Games = More won matches for LSM, but it seems quite the contrary.

    I myself was playing about 5 Eldar Matches vs. LSM, and in all but one, we defeated the LSM. If this is not only happening to me, but otherwhere else well, it would explain why the Growth-Rate has become so slim...

    We have a little more then 36 Hours left, so:

    36hours left x0,175 Growthrate = 6,3%
    that LSM will gain till campaign is over, if it stays like this.
    LSM would need 17,3%, and as such they will loose the campaign if it stays like this.

    If we get more theoretical, and calculate it with the Growth-rate of previous measurements (0,4%) we get:

    36hours left x 0,4% Growthrate = 14,4%
    still not enough.

    So i guess it's safe to say that if LSM wants to win the campaign, they have to play the best they have played the whole week, otherwise they will not complete their faction-campaign

    May the Emperor be with you, Angels of Death

    1:00:51
    [​IMG]

    Here we go again, let's have another look

    It has been about 12 hours since the last update, so let's have a look.

    Status:
    12 hours before we were at 125 of 151 Pixels = 82,7%

    Now we have 135 of 151 Pixels = 89,4%

    Means, since the last time i've checked LSM climbed another +6,7%


    Summary:
    6,7 Progress / 12 hours = 0,55% per hour. The best result we've ever had till i started my measurements.
    Means, LSM kicked butt the last 12 hours.

    If we take the remaining hours and make a rough forecast, we get:

    24 hours left x 0,55% Growth = 13,4% that could be achieved in the last 24 hours.

    As LSM need only 10,6% to complete the campaign, it looks like they will win the campaign, if they keep this performance up.

    So, it's not all over yet, they still got a chance if they man up and fight for the Emperor... or something like that :D

    0:13:09
    [​IMG]

    Here we go again!

    Status:
    11 Hours ago we were at 135 of 151 Pixels = 89,4%

    At this moment we have 141 of 151 Pixels = 93,3%

    So we gained +3,9%

    Summary:

    11 hours / 3,9% gained = 0,35% per hour.

    If LSM were to keep this Growth up, we would increase the bar further by this rate in the remaining 13 hours we would gain another 4,55%
    Problem is though, LSM still needs 6,7% to complete their Campaign.

    So only judging by this data, at the moment it looks like the Campaign will not be completed

    Of course a lot of things can still happen that could turn the tables around again, so the last word isn't spoken yet.
    We will see what happens soon i guess

    0:09:02
    (I can't put more pictures in the first Post, so you will have to believe me what i say :p)

    Status:
    4 hours ago we were on 141 of 151 Pixels = 93,3%

    Now we sit on 144 of 151 Pixels = 95,3%

    In 4 hours we gained +2%

    Summary:

    2% / 4hours = 0,5% per Hour of Growth.

    If we take that 0,5% per hour x 9 hours left = 4,5%

    LSM need 4,7% to hit their Campaign Goal.

    So, based only on this prediction, LSM will have to do just a little bit more, otherwise they won't complete their Campaign, and be it just for 0,2%

    But 0,2% is such a small margin, anything could happen. I do myself believe that LSM will make it, despite what i measured ;)

    0:01:04
    We reached 151 of 151 Pixels = 100%

    4,7% were gained in the last 8 hours. That's a growth-rate of = 0,58% per hours.
    The highest Growth-Rate since i started my measurements.

    It's well possible that somehow LSM got a little "Push" or they just fought the hardest they ever had in the last hours of the campaign.

    It's not on my part to say what really happened, but the result is the same:

    LSM Campaign is finished and the Angels of Death are victorious!

    So... can we have normal Queue-Times back now please? :D
  2. Eavydakka Khaernakov Subordinate

    Please DO update this, i dont play EC currently but i want to know if LSM will do it lol
  3. I got 22 wins across 3 LSM characters during the week. I did really well on Tuesday and Wednesday evenings cdt, but yesterday I failed horribly. I'm going to be working on my house for the next 6 days, so you guys are on your own.
  4. The Entombed Thraxus First Blood!

    Matches are queuing much faster now (around 5 to 10 minutes wait instead of the first week for 30 to 50 minutes plus)

    Due to the huge disadvantage of an entire week with people just not being able to get matches we've just lost motivation to play, we have to squeeze those 5 days into 1 day, not possible.
    JojoKasei and LOBOTRONUS like this.
  5. Updated. I took the time to check again.
    And please not, as i've also said in the Summarys, i am quite inaccurate in my measurements, just because i say it looks like, doesn't mean anything. I only read what i have, not the future ;)
    LOBOTRONUS likes this.
  6. Khornatian Khornatian Steam Early Access

    Thanks for doing this!
    LOBOTRONUS likes this.
  7. If it's any consolation to you and the rest of LSM mains, I'm spearheading an all Khorne team to stand against the Loyalists on Saturday night. It should be some easy wins against us No?
    LOBOTRONUS likes this.
  8. Depends on how skilled you and your Khrone-Berzerkers are at khorning it up ^^
    Life-Steal can be brutal if you just refuse to go down in melee battles.

    But what it definitly would mean is that LSM get's enemys, aká matches to play and maybe win, which is good
    LOBOTRONUS likes this.
  9. The event is actually two fold. 1, giving LSM someone to fight. 2, small teaching tool for new CSM players that want to get in some practice with melee in a team environment. I won't make it easy on LSM but at least it's a match. Something they are in need of.
    LOBOTRONUS likes this.
  10. Blasron Paquet Active Member

    well i am playing another 40k game called martyr. Only in a pre-early access but up to now its fun enought. So 1 less target i guess.

    Just joking i haven't played since the begining of the chaos campaign and took of to other thing to do like gardening, golfing(at last), prey and started quake champion trying it.

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