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So, I did a bit of number-crunching... And time is running out for EC.

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Zael, Aug 27, 2018.

  1. Zael Zael Well-Known Member

    Of special interest here is the graph depicting the daily maximum of EC-players. Well, the curve is obviously not an exponential decline. (Even disregarding the peaks from one-off events.)

    But... I put some numbers into Excel, taking the player-number from April 1st 2017 to August 16th 2018 in biweekly intervals. And the curve fits very nicely a power-law behavior. The fit is
    Number of daily players = 2769 .1 * (half the number of weeks since April 1st 2017)^-0.715

    According to the fit, the daily maximum of players should drop below 150 in pretty exactly 6 months. February 2019.

    The number dropped below 400 for several consecutive days for the first time in October 2017. It dropped below 200 for several consecutive days for the first time in August 2018.
    If we interpret that as an exponential decay with a half-life of 10 months, that means the number will drop to 100 in June 2019. (Though my personal estimate for below-100 is more like end of 2019.)

    Time is running out. Fast.
    Whatever the devs of EC are doing, it better be big. And it better be good enough to keep the players occupied. The novelty of 5-vs-5 was worn out in 2 months.
    LOBOTRONUS likes this.
  2. Lerdoc Katitof Well-Known Member

    And you found just now?

    Not to say anything inapropriate about your intelligence, but you're..... slow.
    RustyRake and Atsidas like this.
  3. Catnium Catnium Well-Known Member

    The novelty of 5 vs 5 already worn out for me after I saw the quake 3 arena map we got for it.
    LOBOTRONUS likes this.
  4. Zael Zael Well-Known Member

    The last time I tried my hand at statistics in this forum I was attacked, insulted and told to shut up, with the argument that the personal opinion of self-proclaimed veteran EC-players is more accurate than number-crunching.

    So, I figured it would be nice to bring a few numbers this time.
  5. Don't get angered by the Katitof.
    It's just his way to show you appreciation, he's not cappable of nice words.

    Regarding your science, i think too many things factor in with such a low player-number that it's too prone to sudden changes. I mean, bring a patch that's good, and suddenly you have more players. Fuck something up, nobody plays anymore.

    I can be wrong of course, but i think you can't really calculate what will happen, allthough i also think that time is running out fast
    BrotherDamnatus and Ivrain like this.
  6. Buffing squad leader banners (indirect ranged and melee buff, but will heavily favour ranged because more people will use that banner as more people play ranged).
    Making a very nice looking map that I think will play out like pro mine due to no transports. Scattered forces with no way to coordinate random players (which transports do), and probably going to end up with attackers having two points, followed by a 10 minute stalemate where a counter attack is impossible for the defenders, and taking the last point is near impossible for the attackers. The only real winners in that map are the 'skilled' bolter players who get to farm kills for 10 minutes. All of which is solved by having transports.

    Yeah, a lot of engaging content to keep players around.
    Great strategy making new (unasked for) maps, that take a long time to make, rather than cutting up existing maps and making them more quickly and easily, and already (hopefully) well balanced. Or they making use of campaigns more, maybe having a monthly schedule for them on the first week of every month, with a new weapon skin to go with each (simple recolouring, not exactly time consuming). Or making use of all the half finished weapon mods that could add more depth to the game...
  7. Zael Zael Well-Known Member

    Nathan has been planning to cut up the maps since F2P-launch in March 2017.

    Nathan's plan as of September 2017 was to stop making new maps entirely and to make more game-modes instead. His argument was that game-modes offer more game-content than maps and are easier and faster to make than maps.

    LOBOTRONUS likes this.
  8. Catnium Catnium Well-Known Member

    Than why did they make a new map for the new game mode one wonders.....
  9. Here's a very simple one that would take about a day to make probably...
    All points start neutral, add more points to existing maps, whoever holds most at the end of the game wins.
  10. That could end in long stalemates

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