There's a chance SM's jump out to an VERY early numbers advantage. I just don't think it will last. The F2Pers will come quickly, and many of them will never go premium to unlock the other factions. Not because the game isn't good, but because many people plainly refuse to pay for games that have a F2P option. Otherwise, within 2-3 months, I'm thinking more like this: Orks: 35% Space Marines: 30% Chaos: 25% Eldar: 10% And I don't see those numbers fluctuating much.